"Brexit" - the potential British exit from the European Union. I'm not an economist or a political analyst, just a normal bloke trying to make sense of it all in the run-up to probably one of the most important decisions of my life. I’m quickly knocking out this (admittedly, not very eloquent piece) in an attempt to contribute to the debate and to make a difference. But if the country does elect to leave the EU, I’m also committing my thoughts to paper so that I will be able to look my son in the eyes in 20 years’ time when, surveying the state of the world, he asks “
What did you do to try and stop Brexit?” At least I’ll have something to show him.
It's clear that Britain is still massively misinformed on the EU and we are now sitting on the event horizon of a permanent Brexit through tabloid-led ignorance. All great civilizations have played a part in their own destruction and, sadly, I think we are seeing it starting to play out in our lifetime in the UK and USA. And this is not "Project Fear" fear scaremongering, just pragmatism. If Donald Trump gets the US top job and the UK proletariat elects to self-flagellate by imploding the EU, we're basically doomed. Fact. It'll be the end of the (generally) safe, secure and prosperous world as we know it.
Here are some further thoughts on the subject, and why I will choose to remain in the European Union on June 23, 2016.
A New Dark Age
For the past decade or so I've been considering the possibility that the planet is entering a new Dark Age. The Age of Reason is in danger of gradually shifting into reverse, while the culture of “
whatever” – listen to Trump repeatedly declaring "
I don't care" – is on the rise. Society is clearly obsessed with fame, celebrity and trivia while serious achievements take second place. Where in my generation youngsters aspired to be scientists or astronauts, these days the answer to the question “
what would you like to be when you grow up?” is now simply: “
famous”. Allied to this, social mobility is on the decline, the rich are getting richer and urbanisation has produced a class of social losers. A recent survey revealed that soon the one percent richest people’s wealth would be higher than what the rest of mankind possessed!
Freedom of thought (essential in the pursuit of reason) has been castrated and generations of children are now poisoned by excessive political correctness. How frequently do you hear people saying “
I’m not supposed to think that, am I?”, or “
Of course, you're not allowed to say that are you?” Growing theist dogmatism has exacerbated this situation and resulted in religious polarisation and the rise of extremism, militantism, fanaticism and terrorism. Thanks to the likes of Osama Bin Laden and George W. Bush, Islam is rising and the Christians are mobilising. However, it's not Iron Age dogma but reason that will lead us to truth, and the pursuit of truth has been the driving force behind progress since the Enlightenment. We cannot afford to abandon these principles now and need to expose theist (and other) dogma for what it is at every opportunity. A modern, tolerant and secular society does not have to be a valueless society. Values are codified by religions, not invented by them (
The Telegraph).
Much of the West appears to have become addicted to a vacuous, virtual world - separated from other humans, but "linked" to a communications device. People enrolled in this far-from-natural world become insensitive, even callous, when confronted with fellow human beings’ suffering. Those who have grown up in the digital age have desensitised to the point that they do not seem to be phased by violence, cruelty, and terrorism and appear to be unable to judge these acts from a human perspective. A generation has detached from reality. As disturbing is the growing denial of science that I've observed over the past decade or so and the increasing prevalence of counter-culture, superstition, conspiracy beliefs, alternative medicine and magical thinking, as opposed to reasoning, rationality, logic, and scientifically demonstrated reality. It is the latter that distinguishes Dark Age thinking from modern thinking (
Huffington Post). One can only begin to imagine the rapid slide into a new Dark Age should the vacuous billionaire celebrity, Donald Trump, become President of a country that glorifies guns and blames almost everything from climate change to train wrecks on gay marriage. And that country happens to have a military machine larger than the rest of the world combined, and is custodian of the planet's mightiest stockpile of nuclear weapons. The future does not seem bright.
Bottom line. I feel that we're falling into the abyss of a new Dark Age where nationalism, populism, and xenophobia rules the world order in a sinister combination of fanaticism, ignorance, and anti-science. We're at the tipping point for "Western Civilisation". The Barbarians filled the void after the fall of Rome. I have no doubt that history will repeat itself should we see a Trump-Brexit perfect storm tossed into this volatile mix.
These thoughts on the bigger picture should provide some context to my opinions on Brexit.
Nationalism & Isolationism
I grew up in a totalitarian, theist pseudo-democracy blighted by nationalism and that had isolationism at its core. The nationalist government of my youth was right wing, conservative and racist. Like the Brexit camp, their mantra was one of separate development. That country was South Africa and their policies became known as “apartheid”. I escaped that country and regime as soon as I was able and remade my life in Europe. We're having this EU referendum in Britain today purely in response to the rise of nationalism in the UK, and the threat of Nigel Farage’s UK Independence Party. A vote to “leave” will empower UKIP and the thought of that scenario leaves me with an uncomfortable sense of déjà vu. I've lived through that before, and it was not good.
The contention that Britain needs to "
embrace full sovereignty or be subjugated by a bunch of European bureaucrats" is thinking rooted in the 19th century. In the 21st century, the world is connected, everything is interdependent, strength lies in unity, alliances and power blocks, and decisions are made together, with and through alliance partners. It is ironic that the once largest colonial power in the world is even considering the puffed-chest nationalist isolationism that our distant ancestors last witnessed. More recently North Korea and Russia have tried to make that work, so why would Britain want to move that direction, empowering the likes of Nigel Farage? The old 19th century idea of sovereignty is long gone, and we no longer live in splendid isolation, lording it over our conquered colonies, sending dispatches by sailing ship and forked sticks. Everything we do as individuals and nations today is tied in to a more complex bigger picture, and thrives on a network of instant data and global communications. Adapt to it or lose out. If Britain decides to try and go it alone, the latter is the likely outcome.
Why Britain would want to run away from the largest trading block in the world is beyond me. In its past it successfully took on (inter alia) the Spanish armada, Napoleon, India, the Zulus, the Boers and the Nazis, but it can't stand on its own two feet in a European alliance? Come on! Brexit would be wimping out - Perfidious Albion making its escape. Great Britain is no longer the mighty colonial power that it was in the Victoria era. Two ruinous World Wars, sparked by nationalism, sunk the empire and brought the nation to its knees, crippling her financially and wiping out generations of talent. But with determination, tenacity, ship loads of immigrants and partnership alliances, the little island has maintained its status in the world and worked to bring European countries together, to bind them together so indissolubly that they could never go to war again. And now we're considering leaving the union that created the peaceful and privileged life we currently live? I'm flabbergasted. We cannot forget the past and need to learn the lessons of the 20th century.
Unity & Consistency
By nature, I subscribe to behavioural “Theory Y” - I believe that people are inherently good and that the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. As far as I'm concerned, in the 21st century European countries are stronger together and our prosperity in Britain is linked directly to that. I believe that what we're witnessing (primarily in England) is simply the rise of xenophobic nationalism, reminiscent of central Europe in the 1920's and 30's. Interesting to note that the majority of former South Africans I've spoken with in the UK support the “leave” campaign. Not surprising that many of these individuals left SA after Nelson Mandela’s release, to escape the country's first, democratically elected (and predominantly black) government.
Most of the men in this group are proud of their service in the apartheid-era South African Defence Force, fighting for their country and flag and wearing the old SA coat of arms with pride. Ironic that the motto on that old coat of arms was “
Unity is Strength / Eendrag maak Mag.” So am I right in saying that they’ve now changed their minds then and that unity is actually a weakness? Maybe the expat South African pale-male has conveniently changed its spots, dancing instead to Farage’s nationalistic tune. Old xenophobic habits die hard, I guess, and the defunct idea of "
separate development" still runs deep.
I left South Africa in the apartheid years to get away from self-serving, narrow-minded xenophobes, and it's disturbing to see people like those kindling their old prejudices in an open and accommodating country like Britain. Furthermore, with their South African backgrounds, these same individuals are themselves part of Farage's “
bloody foreigner” problem in the UK. They’ve come here and taken British jobs, put their kids into British schools and exploited the National Health Service...and now they’re supporting a Brexit vote that would deny other, mostly needier, refugees the same opportunity they had. That's just self-centred and wrong. But unfortunately nationalist's tend to gravitate to a behavioural paradigm opposite to my own, namely "Theory Y" - people are inherently bad - at the expense of all else. Especially if they are “different” people.
One final thought here. Imagine a world with President Trump and the subsequent crumbling of the unifying "special relationship" between the USA and the UK. Then imagine Britain consciously deciding to leave the EU, undermining the Union and watching it all come undone as the economic shock wave ripples around the world. What are people thinking? The fall of the Western World will make the fall of Rome look like a picnic!
Skin in the Game
Members of my South African family took up arms and fought for Queen Victoria, King George V, King George VI and the people of the United Kingdom. My extended family has spilt a lot of blood for Europe, and our genes fill war graves across the continent. Given the ultimate sacrifices they made, how could I not be part of a unified Europe? The fallen include, inter alia:
- Private William Albert Pautz (1897-1918) – St. Omer, France
- Elisabeth Pautz (1913-1944) – Berlin, Germany
- Gefreiter Ernst Pautz (1910-1942) – Pulawy, Poland
- Obergefreiter Ernst Pautz (1911-1943) – Petrowskogo/Woroschilowgrad - Ukraine
- Soldat Ernst Pautz (1915-1945) – unknown location, Eastern Europe
- Flieger Ernst August Karl Pautz (1920-1941) – Siauliai, Lithuania
- Obergefreiter Erwin Pautz (1920-1943) - Snamenka b. Nikopol, Ukraine
- Franz Pautz (1882-1920) – Berlin, Germany
- Gefreiter Friedrich Pautz (1908-1942) – Poselok, Russia
- Unteroffizier Helmut Pautz (1914-1940) – Berlin, Germany
- Schütze Herbert Pautz (1922-1943) – Kiev, Ukraine
- Jäger Herbert Pautz (1923-1942) – St. Petersburg, Russia
- Gefreiter Hermann Pautz (1926-1946) – Kowel, Ukraine
- Feldwebel Hugo Pautz (1914-1942) – Zemena, Russia
- Reservist Johann Pautz (xxxx-1915) – Bouillonville, France
- Gefreiter Karl Pautz (xxxx-1918) – Bouligny, France
- Gefreiter Karl Pautz (1909-1942) – Wenzy, Russia
- Stabsgefreiter Karl Pautz (1914-1944) – Scwarpen, Russia
- Schütze Kurt Fritz Franz Pautz (1923-1942) - Poltawa, Ukraine
- Gefreiter Kurt Hermann Georg Pautz (1919-1943) – Saporoskje, Ukraine
- Otto Pautz (1902-1943) – Stalingrad, Russia
- Gefreiter Otto Robert Ernst Pautz (1907-1943) – Ljubotin, Ukraine
- Schütze Reinhold Pautz (1904-1946) – Korosten, Ukraine
- Unteroffizier Richard Pautz (xxxx-1917) - St.Laurent-Blangy, France
- Sofia Pautz (xxxx-xxxx) – Cologne, Germany
- Gefreiter Wilhelm Pautz (xxxx-1917) – Lafrimbolle, France
- Wilhelm Pautz (1874-1945) – Struer, Denmark
- Obergefreiter Wilhelm Pautz (1914-1940) – Bourdon, France
- Stabsgefreiter Willi Pautz (1915-1945) – Gdynia, Poland
- Obergefreiter Willi Pautz (1923-1943) – Orlowka, Russia
With the exception of the first person on this list (my great-uncle, William Albert Pautz, who was mortally wounded at Messines Ridge while fighting for the South African Scottish regiment in 1918) I have no idea how any of these individuals are linked to me. But we share an uncommon surname, and our family trees are therefore likely to merge in Pomerania at some distant time. There are many more names that I need to add to this incomplete list of war dead. But even this short list of 30 individuals I take very personally. Europe must never tear itself (and the world) apart again. Britain needs to stay in the European Union to help ensure that.
Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and Who to Trust
I quite liked Boris Johnson before the start of the referendum campaign. Sadly he's revealed himself as a hypocrite on a quest for power, who's clearly just working his own political agenda. This is what he said in his book just two years ago: "
It was his (Churchill’s) idea to bring those countries together, to bind them together so indissolubly that they could never go to war again - and who can deny, today, that this idea has been a spectacular success? Together with Nato the European Community, now Union, has helped to deliver a period of peace and prosperity for its people as long as any since the days of the Antonine emperors.” And now he's u-turned a full 180 degrees. He's a
self-centred opportunist who's torn the Conservative Party apart.
As he has repeatedly expressed support for remaining part of the union and rejecting Brexit, Boris Johnson is clearly putting personal ambition before the national interest. By all accounts, initially he did not want to be the Brexit frontman and was quoted as saying: “
The trouble is, I am not an ‘outer’.” Only four year ago he said: “
If we get to this campaign, I would be well up for trying to make the positive case for some of the good things that have come from the single market” and in February this year in his column in the Daily Telegraph he was making the case for the EU. Tory MP Nicholas Soames (the grandson of Winston Churchill) has said: "
Whatever my great friend Boris decides to do I know that he is NOT an outer." But he is the stereotypical
Perfidious Albion personified.
Nigel Farage is an
old school xenophobe who has built a party based on fear or dislike of other cultures and beliefs. It's because of him and the rise of nationalism and the UK Independence Party that David Cameron felt compelled to call a referendum on Britain's EU membership in the first place. He's not the sharpest arrow in the quiver. Farage recently said that if we leave the EU we'll have a smaller pharmaceutical industry and that'll be good for alternative medicine! Oh good grief - so the homeopathic industry, and associated new Dark Age quackery, are going to pull us out of the economic pit that Brexit will put us in. Phew - thank goodness for that!! He should just crawl back into his hole...or slink off to the apartheid laager in Orania where he’d feel quite at home.
In the real world, “actuality” carries more weight than “potentiality”. So even though one may dislike all politicians and distrust everything that comes out of their mouths, I think it would be prudent to give more credibility to the Prime Minister’s (and all living former Prime Ministers’) views as they are the people who’ve actually sat at the top table, thrashing out issues with other heads of state. To a man, they are backing the “remain” campaign…as is the leader of the opposition. It’s easy for those in the “leave” camp to make claims about the EU and its intentions but, quite honestly, it’s just as easy to dismiss their contentions and promises as they’ve not been at the front line, fighting for Britain. They are just hot air, dreams and political opportunism. I prefer to put my trust in the first-hand experience of David Cameron, Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and John Major all of whom actually know what they’re talking about. But “out” conspiracy theorists will no doubt "not care" and disagree. Such is life at the dawn of the new Dark Age.
Sadly, a vote to leave the EU on June 23 will be a vote to empower Farage and UKIP. If this happens, one scenario pans out something like this:
- Britain votes to leave Europe.
- David Cameron's position will be untenable and he will be ousted as Prime Minister.
- Boris Johnson will step in to fill the vacuum till the next election.
- Nigel Farage and his protest party have been banging the Brexit drum for over a decade and that's been their only agenda. If the UK votes to leave the EU, many of these voters will come back to the Tory right, personified by Boris Johnson.
- As a consequence, the Conservative Party will be further split as many members will not wish to be associated with xenophobes and racists.
- This, allied with the fact the Johnson's government will not be able to deliver on most of the promises they made during the referendum campaign, will see the Tories ousted in the 2020 elections. The economy is also likely to be in free-fall at that time, and the Conservative Party is likely to face a crushing defeat.
- Labour will be voted in, and Prime Minister Corbyn will be leading the country by the end of May 2020.
That's terrifying. Imagine Corbin trying to deal with Putin, President Trump and negotiating trade deals around the world. No. Please. No! Vote "remain!"
The Economy
The Brexit camp are beginning to sound like a broken record, constantly banging on about sovereignty, in the context of putting up walls and keeping Johnny Foreigner out. But there's so much more at stake in this referendum, including Britain's status in the world and the prosperity and security it gains through being many multinational companies' gateway to the EU. If Britain pulls out of Europe, many of these countries will surely pull out of Britain and relocate to the Continent. And if we withdraw from the single market, it's going to take many years to negotiate and put new trading agreements in place. Britain is a trading country so, from a business perspective, the prospect of a Brexit is too dreadful to contemplate. If only its supporters weren't so short-sighted and xenophobic to see that! Essentially Brexit would be the economic equivalent of quitting your job because you think you can get it back minus all the parts you don't like. In other words, it's a fantasy.
There was recently an interesting comment in
The Guardian regarding how long it would take the UK to negotiate trade deals afresh in the aftermath of a leave vote: “
It is very difficult to predict. Russia’s accession to the WTO took 20 years. Other negotiations happened faster. It will be a very high risk bet to hope that negotiations would be quickly completed and that negotiations would be uneventful.”
Likewise, there was a worrying headline in
The Telegraph - just the prospect of Brexit saw £65 bn flight from the U.K. in just two months. According to Sky News on the same evening, £1.3m was leaving the country per minute! This is on a par with the money departing the economic system at the height of the financial crisis in 2009.
Sadly, Brexiteers seem to subscribe to the aforementioned culture of “whatever” and simply put their heads in the sand while poo-pooing impact assessments by the most eminent individuals, organisation, heads of state, the current and former Prime Ministers. They paint all of this as part of a "Project Fear" conspiracy while peddling their own "Project Lies." Just a couple of months ago, Brexit front man, Boris Johnson, supported remaining in the EU, and with his slide to Farage's right, he's clearly putting his Prime Ministerial ambitions before the national interest.
Brexit - the (Sarcastic) Upside
In conclusion, and with tongue firmly in cheek, let’s try to distil some of the positives outcomes if Britain leaves the EU:
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Firstly, we'll be able to control our own borders. The French, for example, are currently doing us a favour by allowing UK Customs & Immigration to operate on their side of the Channel as opposed to ours. Once we leave the EU, France will no longer have to be Mr. Nice Guy. It will be great when they close down the Sangatte refugee camp and move border controls from Calais to Dover. It's going to be fantastic to manage the refugees ourselves - it'll create jobs, will be good for Dover's economy and nightlife, and at least we won't have too many dinghies and dead bodies washing up on Kent’s pristine, white beaches.
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As we'll no longer be part of the club, Spain will no longer have to treat Gibraltar with kid gloves. Once we're out, they can lay siege to The Rock before reclaiming it. That will save Britain Billions of Pounds per annum that we can then pump into the NHS...and hopefully get rid of all the bloody foreigners working there.
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While we're at it, fuck it, give the Malvinas to Argentina. The billions that'll save the country per annum, can be used to fill the holes in our decimated post-Brexit economy, and to buy all that razor wire we'll need to keep Dover fenced off.
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Oh - and leaving the EU will trigger another referendum in Scotland, and this time they will vote to leave the United Kingdom. At last Little Britain becomes a reality! And with all the money saved, we can rebuild Hadrian's Wall and cover some of the additional import duties we'll be paying on all goods coming to our little island from the Continent.
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As our only land border with the EU, we can build a big mother-fucking Trump wall between the North and the Republic of Ireland. Sovereignty, baby! Keep the back door locked. One of Rome’s great last acts of folly before it imploded was to erect Hadrian’s Wall between the province of Britannia and the barbarians of Scotland. It was Hadrian's wish to keep "intact the empire", which had been imposed on him via "divine instruction". Sounds eerily like Trump and the bible-bashing GOP, doesn’t it?
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At last the UK will be able to revert to the metric system! Being out of the EU means we no longer have to stick two fingers up to the bloody Europeans by hanging on to ancient Roman imperial units. Won't it be great to be able to talk about a car's 0-100 performance and Kilowatts as opposed to horsepower? Whoever understood that 0-60 nonsense anyway! And I have no idea how tall I am in yards, feet and inches or how many stones I weigh. It's going to be great to move Britain up into the 19th Century.
Viva-Brexit-Viva!
Not...
Vote “remain” on June 23
Let’s stay firmly “In” the European Union.
Cheers,
MAlfaRK ©
